Improving the Use of Risk Knowledge for Enhanced Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Tajikistan

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are widely recognized as proven and effective measures for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation, delivering significant returns on investment by saving lives and minimizing the impacts of disasters. UNDRR’s latest analysis shows that 60% of all countries, now report the existence of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System and comprehensiveness scores for system capabilities have increased. However, significant gaps remain. Disaster-related mortality is nearly six times lower in countries with more comprehensive Multi-Hazard Early Warning System capabilities compared to countries with limited capabilities. 

Tajikistan is actively working to strengthen its early warning systems to reduce disaster damage. The country officially launched the Early Warning for All Initiative in August 2023 and adopted a national Roadmap for Enhancing Early Warning Systems in July 2024. This roadmap addresses gaps and challenges across four key areas. Under the first pillar, Tajikistan aims to strengthen the knowledge and skills required to effectively use risk information for early warning and timely action. Risk knowledge, including hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, is the foundation of robust early warning systems (EWS). Understanding threats such as floods or droughts, as well as the exposure of people, assets, and systems to risk and their vulnerability, enables decision-makers to make more detailed and realistic impact-based forecasts.

Effective risk knowledge also enhances risk communication, ensuring that warnings are not only timely but also context-specific and accessible. When stakeholders clearly understand the risks they face, they are more likely to trust and act on early warnings. This is especially critical for vulnerable populations, who may need simplified or localized messaging to act effectively. Preparedness and anticipatory actions likewise benefit from comprehensive risk knowledge. Identifying areas of greatest exposure and vulnerability allows for strategic resource allocation, tailored evacuation planning, and targeted interventions, reducing potential loss of life and damage to livelihoods. By integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, EWS can bridge existing gaps, ensuring an inclusive and proactive system that enables all individuals, regardless of location or vulnerability, to respond effectively to disasters and climate-related risks.

A Handbook on the use of Risk Knowledge for Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems was developed and published as part of the Early Warning for All (EW4All) initiative by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) with the engagement of the CIMA Foundation. This handbook supports the initiative’s first pillar of Disaster Risk Knowledge and Management by promoting the systematic collection, analysis and disseminations of risk information for use in early warning system. The workshop also sought to foster stakeholder collaboration, promote inclusivity in risk knowledge frameworks, leverage technology and innovation for hazard analysis and forecasting, and improve the integration of risk information into early action mechanisms. By doing so, it strengthens preparedness, decision-making, and resilience across the country.

Next steps in applying risk knowledge to early warning systems include coordination meetings among stakeholders and discussions on priority actions.