Birthrates took another dip after COVID-19 hit. But it’s time to stop worrying about numbers

The COVID-19 pandemic may have accelerated, at least temporarily, the global trend towards lower fertility rates. It’s normal for birthrates to fluctuate from one month to the other, but a look at the statistics shows a sharp decline in the number of births in many European countries in late 2020 – nine month after the first lockdowns kicked in.

Emerging news about the COVID-19 “baby bust” have fueled anxiety about countries’ demographic futures. The pandemic, and its impact on people’s reproductive choices, hit at a time when fertility rates were already very low across Europe. In Eastern Europe, mass outmigration had added to the problem: people don’t only have fewer children, they had also left their home countries in droves in search for better opportunities elsewhere. As a result, populations had been shrinking; countries like Bulgaria or Latvia had lost a quarter of their population since the 1990s.

We don’t know if birthrates will rebound after the pandemic. Historically, this was generally the case after dips in fertility rates during major crises. Data compiled by Tomas Sobotka, a leading demographer, shows that in the last few months birthrates in Europe have indeed shown signs of recovery. Much depends on how lasting the pandemic’s social and economic impact will be.

But the focus on birthrates misses the larger point. Rather than worrying about the ups and downs of population numbers, it is time to wake up to the reality that low fertility is very likely here to stay. And we must come to grips with what needs to be done to prepare our economies and societies for this all but inevitable demographic future.

This is not an easy shift. Common wisdom has it that high birthrates and population growth are desirable for countries, signs of national wealth and power. We are used to thinking in these categories. And it is true that economies may shrink, in absolute terms, when populations become smaller.

But this does not mean that people will become poorer. In fact, per capita prosperity might well go up as workforces are getting smaller, salaries are likely to rise, and increasing automation will lift productivity. Smaller populations are also good for the planet, as fewer people means less consumption, less pressure on scarce resources and less pollution.

To be sure, the transition from population growth to population decrease can be challenging, as many countries, especially in Eastern Europe, can testify. Societies are ageing rapidly and fewer working-age people have to provide for an ever-increasing number of older people. Rural areas are depopulating as people find better opportunities in bigger cities or abroad. Social systems are coming under pressure and it is costly to maintain infrastructure and services in sparsely populated regions.

But these challenges are manageable. Not only that: the need to address them opens up opportunities for innovation that can catapult countries into a more prosperous future. Places like Cluj in Romania or Belgrade in Serbia have emerged as major hubs for the tech industry, attracting talent from within the country and even from abroad. Across Eastern Europe, migrants have returned home due to the pandemic, bringing with them valuable skills, knowhow and networks. Governments are experimenting with ways to harness the key contribution of older people and better integrate them in the economy and society, and open up labor markets, and public life more broadly, to women, minorities and other marginalized groups, tapping into hitherto under-used resources. There even is talk about immigration, long a taboo topic in much of Eastern Europe. All of this contributes to making countries’ stronger in tackling demographic challenges.

Does this mean birthrates do not matter at all? Not quite. They do matter in that they tell a story of denied reproductive rights. People across Europe generally say they want two children, but many end up having one or none at all. This gap between desired and actual fertility is what governments should focus on – not with the intention to boost population numbers, but to help people realize their reproductive rights and be able to have the number of children they want.

This requires removing the many barriers people face when starting a family: economic uncertainties, high cost of housing, growing infertility, lack of affordable childcare and the expectation for women to compromise on their careers and shoulder the burden of care alone.

Progress on creating more family-friendly societies with more equal opportunities for women and men may well lead to higher birthrates, as people will feel more confident in starting a family and having the number of children they want. But neither is this guaranteed, as the example of falling birthrates in family-friendly Scandinavia shows, nor is it what should motivate the push towards family-friendly policies. The measures needed to make sure people can have the number of children they wish have value in themselves, improving people’s well-being and vastly upgrading countries’ development potential.

At UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, we understand the importance of demographic shifts for shaping countries’ futures, and we are supporting countries in strengthening their demographic resilience and in making the most of the opportunities they have.

The sooner we acknowledge that the solution to Europe’s demographic woes does not lie in increasing birthrates, the sooner we will be able to widen our focus to what really matters in addressing the continent’s perceived population crisis: our ability to create countries that people want to live and have families in.

Alanna Armitage is the Director of UNFPA’s Regional Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia